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Road Transport Costs in Europe 2026

In 2026, European road freight will continue to operate in an environment where structural cost pressure remains intense. Though increasingly it is the labour, tolling, regulatory compliance and decarbonisation investments that define transport budgets and put pressure on the margins. But while fuel prices were fairly stable in recent quarters, the latest conflict in the Middle East could brutally remind carriers that fuel still makes up around 40% of their costs.

3/24/2026Author: Michał Pakulniewicz

Fuel Markets: Short-Term Relief Turns into Nightmare
Labour and Capacity: Structural Upward Trend
Tolls, CO₂ Tolls and ETS 2: Environmental levies added to the cost list
Low Emission Zones and Fleet Investment Pressure
Little ones won’t be spared the tachograph fitting
Logistics platforms to the rescue
Conclusion

Fuel Markets: Short-Term Relief Turns into Nightmare

Fuel still represents around 30–40% of operating costs being the key cost component for the sector. However, over the last year diesel prices in Europe have remained fairly stable. Even the Israeli-Iran conflict last summer didn’t turn out to be a catalyst for massive fuel hikes. The upward price run of 2022 is long gone and prices have remained fairly stable though, what must be underlined, at inflated levels. Earlier this year the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected production to continue exceeding consumption in 2026, potentially pushing oil prices lower year-on-year. Which meant that at least the fuel side would offer the sector some needed relief.

Unfortunately, the rekindling of the Israeli-Iranian conflict means that fuel price uncertainty remains high and hikes at the pumps are inevitable. Unlike last June the current installment of the military confrontation has seen a direct assault on oil production and transport infrastructure. Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Ormuz (through which around 20% of global oil supply passes) as well as (so far limited) attacks on production assets in Saudi Arabia put pressure on crude prices.

If the war drags on, and President Trump mentioned a possible four week campaign, the upward price march is likely to continue, which sooner or later is bound to be reflected in the retail prices.

So while the expectations at the beginning of the year saw the fuel market as offering short-term stability, geopolitical reality generated in an instance a reality that was seen as a potential long-term risk

Labour and Capacity: Structural Upward Trend

Fuel remains a key burden on the sector’s budgets, and the Middle East conflict just made sure it will not change anytime soon. Which is bad news as this year other factors are already making carriers reach deeper into their pockets. Labour costs have been among the key cost drivers in 2025 and will continue to exert pressure on the ever-thinning margins in 2026. And in years to come, it seems.

Wage increases in the EU, combined with Mobility Package rules, continue to push up contract rates. Cross-border operators from Poland and other CEE countries also face rising compliance and payroll complexity. According to Eurostat the Labour Cost Index in the EU has increased by 4% y/y in Q3 2025 (latest official data available). However, CEE countries (that play a significant part of the European capacity supply) are more affected by the cost increase – in Poland’s case it came to 16% , in Lithuania 11%. While Romania recorded a single digit growth, in previous few quarters it came to double digits too.

According to Trans.info, which studied cost hikes across various European markets, operating costs on the Romanian market have increased by between 15% and as much as 25% in the last two years. And according to the interviewed local experts, labour costs and wage increases due to pressure to retain staff.

The main reason behind the growing personal costs are the persisting driver shortages. According to 2024 IRU estimates the shortage in the EU at around 426 000 drivers. This lack of workforce will continue to increase pressure on wage growth for the active drivers. And the situation is not likely to get better anytime soon. According to the same report, only 4,5% of the drivers in the EU were below 25 years old. Meaning there is hardly any new blood to replace the ageing driver population in European countries. This issue will be further exacerbated once the economy gets back on track and volumes begin to pick up.

Tolls, CO₂ Charges and ETS 2: Environmental levies added to the cost list

Another cost driver is the tolls, though in many cases it can be blamed on environmental policy of the EU. Tolling is no longer purely infrastructure-based. The revision of the Eurovignette Directive accelerated CO₂-based heavy goods vehicle charging across Europe. Germany introduced a CO₂-differentiated road toll system in December 2023 – which increased the „maut” by as much as 80% in some cases. Austria, Czechia, Denmark, Slovakia and Slovenia followed. The Netherlands will implement distance- and CO₂-based tolling from July 2026.

This year already saw toll increases in various European countries both as a result of „normal” price hikes as well as due to the introduction of the CO2 component. An example of the former is Poland, which saw even an eyebrow-raising 40% price hike on its paid roads. The Czech Republic, France, Austria, Hungary and Belgium have also already increased road toll charges this year (single digit increases) with the Czechs and Austrians including the CO2 component in the price hike.

The expected effects of these? A survey by Polish industry group Transport i Logistyka Polska (TLP) shows 73 % of road transport companies expect profitability to fall because of the latest toll increases. And we are talking about the country whose carriers have for the last few years been the leaders in transport performance in Europe.

Another major regulatory shift is the emissions trading system ETS 2. Road freight integration into the new scheme is expected to be postponed from January 2027 to January 2028. While this one-year reprieve offers temporary relief, it looks like a postponement of a death sentence for many carriers rather than a moment to catch a breath. Once implemented, carbon pricing will substantially increase operating costs for fleets without a credible emissions-reduction trajectory. Italian road transport association Federtrasporti estimates that a truck covering 100,000 kilometres a year will impose an additional burden of around EUR 6,000 on its owner – Trans.info reported. That’s a staggering sum for SMEs and small operators with a few dozen trucks.

Low Emission Zones and Fleet Investment Pressure

The CO2-based tolling and ETS2 scheme are the sticks aimed at promoting the sales of low-emission (or emission free) vehicles. The expansion of Low Emission Zones across European cities further accelerates the need for cleaner vehicles. However, investment capacity varies widely. Replacing a diesel truck with an electric or hydrogen model may require an additional €100,000–€150,000 per vehicle. In a sector characterised by thin margins, this remains a major barrier especially for smaller entities.

Large logistics groups are better positioned to absorb these costs and leverage green fleets as a competitive advantage. SMEs, by contrast, face disproportionate financial strain, risking further market consolidation and structural imbalance between large and small operators.

Little ones won’t be spared the tachograph fitting

The regulatory side has been reaching deep into the transport market players’ pockets recently. The mandatory replacement of tachographs is just the tip of the iceberg here. A few hundred thousand vehicles across Europe had to be equipped with smart tachographs by August 2025 with each device costing approximately 1000 euro. This summer the LCV segment will follow. And as the van operators are usually small firms already operating on tight margins, the installation of tachographs might be the nail in the coffin for many of them.

Logistics platforms to the rescue

The brief look at all the cost changes already introduced in 2026 or soon to be implemented force transport companies to shift from reactive cost-cutting to active profitability management. Tools such as CargoON help transport companies manage rapidly rising costs by improving efficiency, transparency and pricing control. It can help shift companies from reactive cost-cutting to proactive margin management—essential in a market facing structural cost growth.

First, they can help reduce empty mileage through smarter load matching and backhaul optimisation, directly lowering cost per kilometre. Second, they provide real-time market visibility—capacity trends, lane rates and demand levels—supporting better cost-saving reactions as well as stronger, data-based negotiations.

Conclusion

In 2026, European road transport is defined less by volatility and more by structural transformation. In addition to fuel prices likely to continue to exert more and more pressure, CO₂-based tolls increase across the continent, while pending ETS 2 implementation and expanding Low Emission Zones signal a permanent shift in cost structure. The competitive divide between well-capitalised logistics groups and SMEs may widen as decarbonisation accelerates.

Companies that combine indexed pricing, advanced benchmarking and proactive fleet transition strategies will be best positioned to manage rising regulatory and environmental requirements while maintaining operational resilience and long-term competitiveness. Those that still compete solely on prices may find themselves backed into a corner this year.