Road Transport in Europe 2025: More freight, fewer carriers. The Industry at a crossroads
The beginning of 2025 brings clear signs that the European road transport sector is entering a new phase of transformation. The report "Transport in Europe: Trends | Data | Analysis", prepared by the Polish Road Transport Institute, highlights not only the scale of ongoing challenges but also the growing imbalance between rising demand and a shrinking supply of transport capacity. There’s more freight. The problem? Not enough trucks to move it.
Economic stagnation sets the tone
2024 ended on a weak note for most European economies. In quarterly terms, only Poland saw GDP growth above 1%, while Spain was close. Meanwhile, both Germany and France experienced economic contraction, with Germany entering its second consecutive quarter of decline.
Year-over-year, only Poland and Spain recorded solid growth – 3.7% and 3.5% respectively. These two economies stood out in an otherwise sluggish continental landscape.
Shifting consumption habits don’t help
Consumer demand across Europe is leaning toward services rather than goods – a reversal from pandemic-era trends, when people were on a buying spree. For the transport sector, this is problematic: services generate far less demand for freight than manufacturing or retail.
In December 2024, retail sales fell month-over-month in four out of seven key EU markets – by 1.5% in Poland and 1.6% in Germany. Industrial output showed little sign of life, with Spain being a rare bright spot.
More freight, fewer carriers
January 2025 saw a spike in freight offers on the Trans.eu platform, with volume increasing on 14 of 16 key lanes. On some routes, the month-over-month growth exceeded 100%. But carrier activity moved in the opposite direction – dropping both month-over-month and year-over-year.
Many carriers are scaling down operations, exiting less profitable routes, or suspending business entirely. The result? Even more pressure on logistics teams to secure reliable capacity.
Rates are climbing – but not fast enough
Spot rates have increased year-over-year – by double digits on some lanes – but still don’t keep pace with the operational cost surge. On many key routes, rate increases remained under 8%. On one lane (Italy–Poland), it was just 5%.
Rising costs, frozen investment
Fuel remains the biggest cost driver – averaging €1.57 per liter of diesel in December 2024 (a 4.6% increase from September). At the same time, fleet investments are shrinking. Heavy truck registrations fell by over 10% in most EU markets – and by 22.8% in Poland.
Instead of modernizing fleets, many carriers are simply keeping older trucks on the road and limiting operations to stay afloat.
What’s next?
The outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. Every country in the report is expected to post higher GDP growth than in 2024. Even Germany is forecast to return to positive territory. But with growth projections around 1.5% for the EU, no one’s expecting a boom.
For supply chain teams, now is the time to rethink transport strategy. Those who can blend real-time market insights with operational flexibility will gain a true competitive edge in 2025.
