Researchers from Market Insights ON have analysed data from the transport market from the last two years, while trying to draw conclusions for the coming months. Further waves of pandemics and lockdowns, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, inflation – all these factors are affecting the freight market. – I have recently heard a good joke that forwarders tell each other. Which is better: a contract carrier or Christmas? Contract carrier, of course, but Christmas is more common – comments Rafal Jablonski, CEO at System Transport, one of the experts in Market Insights ON.
Piotr Roczniak from Trans.eu uses the metaphor of the ‘black swan’ when referring to the current situation. This is a concept introduced several years ago by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a renowned statistician and economist. – The thing is that forecasts often don’t come true, because some unpredictable phenomena occur. The transport market and the economy as a whole are often hit by such ‘black swans’ – he adds.
The authors of the analysis in Market Insights ON try to deduce from the available data what is ahead of supply chains in the coming months: how freight and fuel prices may shape up, what the inflation rate may be and the availability of new trucks. – If we were to make a reference to the swan metaphor already, I would say that we can rather expect grey swans. The transport market will, in fact, be influenced by many different events in the near future, but they will not necessarily be sudden and unexpected – says Dr Jacek Karcz, expert in road transport and courier services, advisor at Gruber Logistics.
Details to be found in the first issue of Market Insights ON.