Revival of supply chains going on in the East?

Author: Konrad Potocki

Although it is hard to believe, there are many signs that, despite the year-long war in Ukraine, supply chains are starting to operate normally again. Well, maybe not quite normal, but some signs of improvement are visible.

According to the latest data from the Opendatabot think tank, there are now 1.2 million large companies operating in Ukraine, and more than 2 million small and medium-sized ones. What sounds optimistic is that the number of companies being set up is five times greater than the number of companies closing down. Symptoms of economic recovery obviously have quite an impact on the work of supply chains. 

The figures just quoted are for the period 1 April 2022 – 1 April 2023. And the trend in new business start-ups (especially the smallest) is upward. However, in order for the supply chains in the European direction and in the eastern direction (from the European Union) to work normally, a rapid recovery of Ukraine is necessary. As calculated by Allianz Trade in turn, 150-200 billion euros of private investment (in infrastructure, healthcare, digital and energy security, among others) are needed for the country to return to normality. 

Also good news for international supply chains is the economic performance of China, which has apparently not been hurt by the conflict in Ukraine. China’s National Bureau of Statistics has just reported that economic growth there was 4.5% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2023. This is quite a lot more than expected. Experts believe that this is mainly due to the lifting of drastic restrictions related to the pandemic.